Politics

2008 v 2012 v 2016 Primary Turnout Analysis

2008v2012v2016So there was comment on Google+ today stating that the, “Democrat turnout is 20%+ down this year.” The commenter felt this this was significant because “none of the polls account for the fact” and that in both 2008 and 2012 the primary turnout was far higher than this year.

I like to question numbers so I decided to take a look at the numbers used by Breitbart which appeared to be the source of the 20% figure. For 2012’s numbers I used a report from the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Note: The Breitbart graphic has an error listing the percent difference as 2012 v 2016 when it’s 2008 v 2016.

After entering the data and removing the states for which there was no applicable data in 2012, I found the 2008 to 2012 turn out change to be technically accurate but misleading when you look at the intermediate primary and those previous to 2008. When comparing to 2012 the 2016 Democratic primaries will increase by over 124% and will have a better turn out than 1996, 2000 and 2004. Really 2008 was the anomaly in recent years with such a high primary voter turn out. So to address the original commenters statements the 2016 Democratic Primaries turnout are lower than 2008 but they are the second highest in the past six elections. Really though none of this matters as “Primary Turn Out Means Nothing For The General Election“. Primary turn out is such an unreliable indicator that you are really gambling if you are using that as a metric for what the General Election would look like.

Really neither the Republican or the Democratic candidate will be my pick in this race. I plan to vote for Gary Johnson, presuming he gets the Libertarian nomination.

Link to my document if you want to more easily compare on your own.

2008 v 2012 v 2016 Primary Turnout Analysis Read Post »

Threat: New iPhone exploit discovered by the FBI.

Apple-iPhone-FBI-BackdoorThreat: New iPhone exploit discovered by the FBI.
Solution: Keep sensitive information encrypted on other devices.
URL: http://thehackernews.com/2016/03/fbi-iphone-unlock_28.html

The FBI has recently dropped it’s case against Apple after it found it’s own way to unlock the dead terrorists iPhone 5c. Currently experts suspect the technique involved NAND Mirroring (a technique used to copy the contents of the phone’s NAND memory chip and flash a fresh copy back onto the chip when the max number of attempts is exceeded) but the FBI is not revealing the details of it’s technique.

One thing I do know is that once an exploit is out, it’s difficult to keep it secret. Now that the FBI has this method to unlock encrypted devices, it won’t be long until people with bad intentions also learn similar techniques. In general to protect your personal information I would recommend keeping as much of it off of your portable device as you can and to use multiple security layers when possible.

Threat: New iPhone exploit discovered by the FBI. Read Post »

Why did I register to vote as a Libertarian?

When I was seventeen I was in foster care and many of my life decisions were under direct control of the state. I knew that when I became eighteen I would gain some more freedoms. One of these was the ability to vote and participate more fully in trying to change the system.

I already had some interest in political science and history, so I decided to research it further. I read a few different books concerning different political parties and I ran across The Advocates for Self Government. This was 1997-1998 and the internet was still quite new. I remember opening Netscape and navigating to the site and reading articles by Dr. Mary Ruwart and others there concerning libertarianism. I also signed up for the Liberator Online newsletter on my Hotmail account.

I found the principles of libertarianism to be quite appealing after having spent my life in direct control of the state. After all the reading, I decided I best identified with the Libertarian Party and registered as a Libertarian on my birthday. After deploying with the Army Reserves to Iraq and realizing how bad of a decision that was for us as a country and wanting to try to more actively change things; I later became active with in the LP at the County and State level. I have since moved to Texas and I have not yet become active with the Party locally out here but I intend to in the future.

Why did I register to vote as a Libertarian? Read Post »

The Death Penalty

willOn December 23, 1991, tragedy struck the Willingham’s in Corsicana, Texas as their home became engulfed in flames. A neighbor smelled the smoke and found Cameron Todd Willingham standing outside his home soot covered and singed. Todd was screaming, “My babies are burning up!” (Grann “Trial by Fire”) as his three children were trapped inside. Todd told the neighbor to call the fire department while he attempted to break into the children’s window using a stick, but he was sadly held back by the intensity of the flames. Upon arrival, police and firefighters had to wrestle Todd down and restrain him for his own safety. Stacy Willingham had left earlier in the morning and came home to find her children had perished in the fire.

The town of Corsicana quickly began to lovingly help the family as they started a funeral fund. In that time, arson investigators began looking at what caused the fire. Due to some irregularities, the arson investigators began to suspect that Todd had actually started the fire. The other major piece of evidence against Todd was the testimony of a jailhouse informant who was promised leniency in exchange for the testimony that Todd had confessed to him. Cameron Todd Willingham was found guilty and later executed February 17, 2004.

In 2004, Gerald Hurst, an acclaimed scientist and fire investigator examined and discredited each piece of evidence and his investigation has later been supported by other individual arson investigators. The testimony from Todd’s cellmate has also been recanted. If Todd were alive today, he would be able to seek an appeal, but he can’t because he was already executed many years before. The death penalty is is an immoral permanent action and should be abolished. Life in prison without parole offers similar protections to the public and allows freeing someone if they are found innocent.

anthonyThere are hundreds of cases like that of Todd Willingham. Luckily, more of them are turning around to happier endings. Anthony Ray Hinton was recently released in April of 2015 after being on death row for thirty years. Luckily, he had not been executed before now. In Mr. Hinton’s case, he had been struggling for freedom the entire time, explaining that the revolver that police say was used in the slayings didn’t match the evidence at the scenes. Attorneys believe that racial biases and Mr. Hinton’s impoverished background worked against him getting the case overturned sooner. As much as people want to believe the system works, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 4.1% of those on death row are innocent (Pilkington “US death row study: 4% of defendants sentenced to die are innocent “). During the time of the study from 1973 to 2004, only 138 were exonerated. That would mean approximately 202 innocent people were killed during that time. The death penalty is a permanent action that does not leave room to overturn mistakes later.  The option of Life Without Parole (LWOP) allows freeing the innocent and protects the public from the actual murderers held in prison.

Some proponents of the death penalty would argue that it is the only fiscally feasible method, but they are wrong when comparing the actual facts of the situation. Death penalty cases are expensive because sentencing someone requires at least two trials. There is normally a first trial that acts as a determination of guilt and a later trial that determines if the person actually deserves the death penalty. That isn’t even taking into consideration all the costs of extended appeals. According to a Duke University study, replacing North Carolina’s death penalty would save taxpayers approximately $22 million dollars in just two years (Erb “Death and Taxes: The Real Cost of the Death Penalty”). This pattern of death penalty cases costing more than non-death penalty cases is repeated across multiple studies in multiple states. The truly fiscally responsible action would be to transition to only seeking LWOP.

Other supporters of the death penalty would argue that retribution is necessary. They would argue that an “eye for an eye” is the best way to go. In the United States, it is considered murder when a person kills someone in revenge. Why is this any different when the state is the one doing it in proxy for others? If supporters really looked at that principle logically, they would realize that seeking retribution is unjust no matter who is seeking it.

Death-Penalty-Infographic_1Some proponents would save their best argument for last and say that the death penalty is the best deterrent for murder. The death penalty supporters would also be wrong in that instance. A recent study by Professor Michael Radelet and Traci Lacock of the University of Colorado found that 88% of the nation’s leading criminologists do not believe the death penalty is an effective deterrent to crime. This should not be a surprise, as murder is often a very personal crime of passion. In cases where emotions are raging, the murderer is not considering the repercussions. This does not excuse the person’s actions, but when taking that into consideration, it is obvious why the death penalty is an ineffective deterrent.

Should more men like Todd be executed? Should more men like Anthony Ray Hinton barely escape the hangman’s noose due to racial biases? Is it better that the innocent should die in the name of retribution? A rational and compassionate person should say no to these questions. Life is too precious to throw away due to an imperfect system.

Works Cited

Erb, Kelly. “Death and Taxes: The Real Cost of the Death Penalty.” Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 22 Sept. 2011. Web. 25 June 2015.

Grann, David. “Trial by Fire.” The New Yorker. The New Yorker, 7 Sept. 2009. Web. 25 June 2015.

Pilkington, Ed. “US Death Row Study: 4% of Defendants Sentenced to Die Are Innocent.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media Limited, 28 Apr. 2014. Web. 25 June 2015.

 

The Death Penalty Read Post »