Politics

Let’s take yet another look at state-by-state polling and state voting history to get a good prediction for the 2016 election. I primarily look at the RCP average polling numbers but I also take into account polls they don’t use if data is lacking for a state. So taking all that into account, I’m going to make my predictions for how it will all turn out next month. Please note my lightly colored predictions are close enough to potentially change.

I think Clinton will likely get 341 electoral votes, Trump at will likely get 197. With Clinton reaching 273 at a minimum, this would place her in the White House. Trump would need to hope all of Clinton’s medical concerns are valid and take a sudden turn for the worse for him to have a chance.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Now for the challengers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for some states. Obtaining ballot access is tough work. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. The other candidate of notice is Evan McMullin (I) who is polling well in Utah but largely unknown and on only eleven ballots elsewhere. The former CIA spy could potentially shift Utah to voting in favor of Clinton or himself, largely due to his religious affiliation. This however will not impact the election much as Trump is in a large deficit with electoral votes. For McMullin I would guess this showing would catapult him in a position with establishment Republicans potentially setting him up for office in Utah. When it comes to national totals of the various challengers, Gary Johnson should come in the lead getting more than 5% of the vote leading to the Libertarian Party obtaining minor party status with better funding and ballot access for the next Presidential election.

We just got our Gary Johnson for President yard signs in. It took less than a week to get them in from the LP Store. I was just going to order one but since it had $5 flat rate shipping, I figured I might as well get a second sign, just in case one got damaged. I guess I can keep it if this one gets stolen or give it to one of the other Johnson supporters in the area.

Let’s take another look at state-by-state polling and state voting history to get a good prediction for the 2016 election. I primarily look at the RCP average polling numbers but I also take into account polls they don’t use if data is lacking for a state. So taking all that into account, not much has changed from my last prediction.

I think Clinton will get at least 279 electoral votes, Trump at least 180 and 79 electoral votes are still up for grabs. With Clinton still reaching 270 at a minimum, this would still place her in the White House. Trump would need to put another state in contention where Clinton still has a lead and gain that in addition to the other states I consider in contention to win. That is still a long shot for his campaign.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Now for the potential spoilers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for states like Arizona. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. Johnson has been polling in double digits in 42 states while Jill Stein has been polling at around 3-5%. This really only comes into play if Jill Stein can spoil a state for Clinton or Johnson gains enough momentum to take a state from Clinton like New Mexico, where he was a successful Governor. If that happened the election could potentially go to Congress where things would become very interesting but that is as much of long shot as Trump winning the election at this point.

Let’s take another look at state-by-state polling and state voting history to get a good prediction for the 2016 election. I primarily look at the RCP average polling numbers but I also take into account polls they don’t use if data is lacking for a state. So taking all that into account, I now think Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and Utah are too close to call.

Notable changes from my last prediction include:

1. Clinton has taken the lead in Colorado
2. Utah is in statistical three way tie.
3. Georgia and Iowa are back in contention.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Taking that all into account I think Clinton will get at least 273 electoral votes, Trump at least 158 and 107 electoral votes are still up for grabs. With Clinton still reaching 270 at a minimum, this would still place her in the White House. Trump would need to put another state in contention where Clinton still has a lead and gain that in addition to the eight other states I consider in contention to win. That is still a long shot for his campaign.

Now for the potential spoilers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on track to be on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for states like Arizona. There is also a late comer in Evan McMullin (I) who can potentially make it onto 11 states ballots. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. Johnson has been polling as high as 13% while Jill Stein has been polling at around 3-5%. This really only comes into play if Jill Stein can spoil a state for Clinton or Johnson gains enough momentum to take a state from Clinton like New Mexico, where he was a successful Governor. If that happened the election could potentially go to Congress where things would become very interesting.

The chances of Johnson winning a state have become much more difficult in the past few days, just coming of polling showing him a statistical tie for a state. If McMullin gets on the ballot in Utah, that could help the state go Democrat this election and further cement Clinton’s electoral lead. His candidacy would likely eat away at support for both Johnson and Trump in his targeted states.

Looking at McMullin’s candidacy, I think some of the Republican elite have looked and come to some of the same conclusions I have about Trump losing; while finding a way to twist the knife a little. This has a secondary impact of potentially suppressing polling for Johnson and making him miss that last couple polling points he needs to make the debates and try to put the brakes on any momentum he might build.