So this time around I’m trying to adjust for the “embarrassed Trump voter factor” with polls and make educated guesses on places where I feel polls do a disservice by not including options that impact results. To me it also comes down two electoral votes that have haven’t had enough polling to be sure. That is unless one or more of the light blue or light red states I have marked flip to the other side. In which case you could see a larger electoral win than what I have left room for here.

Link to map on 270towin.