Politics – Page 10 – Paul's Notepad

September Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction

Paul Darr / 2016-09-14 / Leave a Comment

Let’s take another look at state-by-state polling and state voting history to get a good prediction for the 2016 election. I primarily look at the RCP average polling numbers but I also take into account polls they don’t use if data is lacking for a state. So taking all that into account, not much has changed from my last prediction.

I think Clinton will get at least 279 electoral votes, Trump at least 180 and 79 electoral votes are still up for grabs. With Clinton still reaching 270 at a minimum, this would still place her in the White House. Trump would need to put another state in contention where Clinton still has a lead and gain that in addition to the other states I consider in contention to win. That is still a long shot for his campaign.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Now for the potential spoilers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for states like Arizona. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. Johnson has been polling in double digits in 42 states while Jill Stein has been polling at around 3-5%. This really only comes into play if Jill Stein can spoil a state for Clinton or Johnson gains enough momentum to take a state from Clinton like New Mexico, where he was a successful Governor. If that happened the election could potentially go to Congress where things would become very interesting but that is as much of long shot as Trump winning the election at this point.

September Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction Read Post »

Another Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction

Paul Darr / 2016-08-12 / 1 Comment

Notable changes from my last prediction include:

Clinton has taken the lead in Colorado
Utah is in statistical three way tie.
Georgia and Iowa are back in contention.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Taking that all into account I think Clinton will get at least 273 electoral votes, Trump at least 158 and 107 electoral votes are still up for grabs. With Clinton still reaching 270 at a minimum, this would still place her in the White House. Trump would need to put another state in contention where Clinton still has a lead and gain that in addition to the eight other states I consider in contention to win. That is still a long shot for his campaign.

Now for the potential spoilers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on track to be on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for states like Arizona. There is also a late comer in Evan McMullin (I) who can potentially make it onto 11 states ballots. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. Johnson has been polling as high as 13% while Jill Stein has been polling at around 3-5%. This really only comes into play if Jill Stein can spoil a state for Clinton or Johnson gains enough momentum to take a state from Clinton like New Mexico, where he was a successful Governor. If that happened the election could potentially go to Congress where things would become very interesting.

The chances of Johnson winning a state have become much more difficult in the past few days, just coming of polling showing him a statistical tie for a state. If McMullin gets on the ballot in Utah, that could help the state go Democrat this election and further cement Clinton’s electoral lead. His candidacy would likely eat away at support for both Johnson and Trump in his targeted states.

Looking at McMullin’s candidacy, I think some of the Republican elite have looked and come to some of the same conclusions I have about Trump losing; while finding a way to twist the knife a little. This has a secondary impact of potentially suppressing polling for Johnson and making him miss that last couple polling points he needs to make the debates and try to put the brakes on any momentum he might build.

Another Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction Read Post »

Marijuana legalization is a Christian stance

Paul Darr / 2016-08-08 / Leave a Comment

A person can oppose the recreational use of marijuana and yet still recognize that the impact of the prohibition on drugs has not achieved it’s intended results and in many ways has accomplished the opposite. I would like each of you to take a moment to consider what the current “War on Drugs” has accomplished and consider that education and personal choice might be far better tools to accomplish the task of reducing recreational drug use.

Let’s first look at marijuana use over the past decade compared to tobacco use. According to a 2013 Pew Research Survey over the past decade use has increased from 40% of adults having tried the drug to 48%. According to the Centers for Disease Control numbers, smoking hit an all-time low in 2013 at 17.8%. These two numbers are at odds with common policy as the legal tobacco saw a decrease while the illegal marijuana saw a marked increase. In this case, criminalization has completely failed to reduce the use of marijuana; while education and personal choice has been far more effective at reducing tobacco use. I would even go so far as to say that those that are still in support of marijuana prohibition are ignorantly supporting its continued black market use.

Now let’s consider the impact the “War on Drugs” has had on the prison population and our communities. Currently over 46% of Federal inmates are being held for drug offenses. This percentage holds roughly at the various states also. That is a large percentage of the prison population that is being held and largely going untreated for drug use. Habitual/detrimental drug use should be treated as a public health problem and not a criminal justice issue. Throwing people in cages is a very poor treatment for drug use and is largely ineffective. When drug use hurts a person’s life, we should take the compassionate approach and help them to get the medical treatment they need. Ruining a person’s life in prison to save them from potentially ruining their life with drugs only yields a Pyrrhic victory, even in the best case scenario.

As a compassionate change from current policy, I propose that those of us who oppose harmful drug use just do so in a more effective manner. Education on the potential harm and persuasion will do far more to influence moral behavior than trying to use the government to enforce it. All of us have agency, while on the earth to choose for ourselves to follow what the Lord would have us do. For those that fail and need help, our compassion and medical treatment will do far more to help them than prison. The potential benefits of such a change would mean a lower prison population and reducing the harmful impact drugs have by providing better treatment for those that need it. It would also provide a tertiary bonus of reducing street crime associated with drugs and reducing the violence inherent there. Please consider taking what I think will be the more effective and compassionate approach for drug policy. It’s what I believe the Lord would have us do to help our neighbor and not try to throw them in a cage.

While we are on the topic, can we get industrial hemp legalized and not so controlled by the feds that it’s nonviable? The stuff isn’t even usable as a drug yet gets demonized to the point of being ignored as the great textile that it is.

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Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction

Paul Darr / 2016-06-09 / 2 Comments

A few polls came out the day of my last post concerning the 2016 election. So taking those into account, I now think Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada are too close to call. In Nevada’s case it’s due to a lack of polling on the state level. In my last post I considered North Carolina barely in Clinton’s margin and an important state for the Trump campaign but I now consider it too close to call. Taking that all into account I think Clinton will get at least 270 electoral votes, Trump at least 189 and 79 electoral votes are up for grabs. With Clinton still reaching 270 at a minimum, this would still place her in the White House. Trump would need to put another state in contention where Clinton still has a lead and gain that in addition to the five other states in contention to win. That is a long shot for his campaign.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Now for the potential spoilers, both Governor Gary Johnson (L) and Jill Stein (G) will be on the ballot in most states in 2016. The Libertarian Party is on track to be on the ballot in all 50 states while the Green Party will be on many of them but missed crucial deadlines for states like Arizona. In polls where Governor Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were included, the polling gap between Clinton and Trump narrowed. Johnson has been polling as high as 12% while Jill Stein has been polling at around 3-5%. This really only comes into play if Jill Stein can spoil a state for Clinton or Johnson gains enough momentum to take a state from Clinton like New Mexico, where he was a successful Governor. If that happened the election could potentially go to Congress where things would become very interesting.

Update: 2016 Presidential Election Prediction Read Post »